Your 7-iron just went 155 yards. You pull the 5-iron, make what feels like a better swing, and watch it land at 158 yards.

From 125 yards, a 15-handicapper hits the green less than half of the time—in fact, 39.5 percent from 125 to 150 yards, according to game-tracking system Arccos Golf. Most of those misses are short ...