The well-established forecasting methods of exponential smoothing rely on the “optimal” estimation of parameters if they are to perform well. A grid search procedure to minimise the MSE is often used ...

This paper evaluates the ex ante performance of rule-based time series forecasting systems proposed in earlier research. The author shows that comparable performance can be obtained with a simpler ...

Depending on the smoothing model, the smoothing weights consist of the following: is a level smoothing weight. is a trend smoothing weight. is a seasonal smoothing weight. is a trend damping weight.